The Dynamics of the India-Pakistan Rivalry
What are the trends of the Indo-Pakistani Conflict, and do these trends hold any significance for peace or war in the present and near future? In the Indo-Pakistani conflict, Pakistan serves as the immediate catalyst for violence and it cannot defeat India on the battlefield; because Pakistan is the initiator and yet it is unable to accomplish its goals militarily, peace is most likely to occur with the absence of Pakistani aggression. Armed conflict in the region is most likely to be avoided when the Pakistani government is controlled by a weak democratic regime rather than a strong authoritarian one; also, when India begins to dominate Pakistan on the balance of power, Pakistan is more likely to submit to the formers wishes, rather than seek grievances on the battlefield. The Correlates of War database tables define each conflict under an assortment of different criteria; of particular interest to this essay is the statistical information on conflict initiation, outcome, length, date, and highest action. Using this data, one can perhaps better visualize the patterns of conflict as well as the trends of peace. It is these patterns and trends that are the focus of this essay; using the MID tables, I have analyzed the various inclinations of the Indo-Pakistani conflict by focusing on diverse similarities and abnormalities. Upon completing a detailed analysis of the given conflict tendencies, I have provided a cross-examination of the data by presenting a historical summary of the various periods of intense clashing, as well as the phases of rare peace; these periodical reviews serve to reiterate and defend the thesis by explaining the data and the aspects that it exposed.
School:
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Department:
Political Science
Research Advisor:
Paul Diehl
Department of Research Advisor:
Political Science
Year of Publication:
2003